News

Since March of 2023, a recurring set of questions has revolved around a) how conditions in commercial real estate (CRE) are affecting banks and b) how conditions with banks are affecting CRE. A variety of Charts of the Week (COTW)—including here, here, and here—have delved into the topic and we do so again today, digging […]

According to the latest results from MBA’s National Delinquency Survey (NDS) released today, the overall delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties increased to 3.62 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2023. The delinquency rate was 25 basis points higher than the series-low 3.37 […]

This week’s Chart of the Week highlights the October Employment Situation results released this morning. The job market continued to fare reasonably well in October but showed signs of weakening. Employers added 150,000 jobs over the month, but the October number was partially held down by a loss of 33,000 […]

MBA’s latest commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast anticipates 2023 origination volumes ($442 billion) will come in just a bit more than half of what they were in 2022 ($816 billion). Perhaps more significantly, it anticipates a slower bounce-back in activity than previous forecasts, driven by “higher-for-longer” interest rates resulting not just from […]

This week at the MBA Annual Convention and Expo in Philadelphia, our Research & Economics team presented the October forecast, which showed that total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $1.95 trillion in 2024 from the $1.64 trillion expected in 2023. By loan count, total mortgage origination units are […]

This edition of PRTNR Magazine is a celebration of the many facets of this beautiful season and how they parallel the dynamics of the unpredictable real estate industry. As you read through the pages, we hope you’ll find inspiration and practical insights that can be applied to your own business ventures and […]

The monthly cost burden of purchasing a new home, as interest rates and house prices rose precipitously in 2022, has continued into 2023. Indeed, this week’s Weekly Applications Survey (WAS) release noted that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 7.67%—the highest level since 2000—and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s […]

Each quarter, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) submit their projections for various economic measures (i.e., real gross domestic product growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate). This month’s projections, shown in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), included 2026 for the first time. In this […]

The monthly cost burden of purchasing a new home, as interest rates and house prices rose precipitously in 2022, continued in the first few months of 2023. For example, MBA’s Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) hit a new high in May. Since then, despite 30-year mortgage interest rates eclipsing 7%, […]

According to the July results from MBA’s Monthly Loan Monitoring Survey (LMS) released on Monday, the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from 0.44% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.39% as of July 31, 2023. Over the past three years, the forbearance rate […]

We’ve teamed up with some well-respected industry leaders to provide an amazing afternoon of training.  The focus will be on the latest trends, strategies, and best practices in the REO space. This is a great opportunity to connect with peers and colleagues and we look forward to you joining us! […]

This week, MBA Research released the second quarter results of its Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report (QPR). The sample of 344 independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and bank subsidiaries reported an average pre-tax net loss of $534 on each loan they originated in the second quarter of 2023. While improved from the reported […]

Yesterday, MBA released the latest results from its National Delinquency Survey (NDS ). Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data issued its latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. According to the NDS, the overall delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties fell […]

Loans originated for the purchase of a home grew to an average size of $371,000 in 2022, from $344,000 in 2021, according to MBA’s analyses of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) dataset. This week’s Chart of the Week explores differences in average home purchase loan sizes by company type, where company […]

The divergence between existing and new home sales activity continues to grow. This week’s Chart of the Week compares data from our Builder Applications Survey (BAS), which captures home purchase applications on newly constructed homes taken by mortgage companies affiliated with home builders, and the Weekly Applications Survey (WAS), which covers a broader sample […]

In May 2023, MBA Research released the first quarter results of its Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report (QPR). Total loan production expenses – commissions, compensation, occupancy, equipment, and other production expenses and corporate allocations – increased to a study-high of $13,171 per loan in the first quarter, up from $12,450 per loan […]

This week, the U.S. Census Bureau released updated construction spending survey data (https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html). Also referred to as the Value of Construction Put in Place (VIP), the survey covers all private residential construction and improvements, non-residential construction, and public construction. Total construction spending in the U.S. increased by 0.9% from April […]

In commercial real estate (CRE), all eyes remain on the office market. That is despite the fact that multifamily mortgage debt—accounting for $2.0 trillion of the $4.6 trillion of total outstanding—is almost three times as large and office accounts for just 17 percent of total CRE debt. But office is the […]

2020 and 2021 were record-setting years with $4.11 trillion and $4.44 trillion in originations respectively, as the industry experienced record low mortgage rates and home price appreciation soared across the country. Indeed, 2021 set records for purchase ($1.86 trillion) and refinance originations ($2.57 trillion). The last time the mortgage industry […]

According to data from MBA’s May 2023 Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), we saw the third consecutive month of declining credit availability, as the industry continued to see more consolidation and reduced capacity as a result of the tougher market. These factors brought the MCAI to its lowest level since January […]

National house price growth has cooled drastically since reaching a high of 18.5 percent in the third quarter of 2021, with first quarter 2023 house price appreciation coming in at 4.3 percent. These are annual or four quarter percent changes, based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Purchase-Only House […]

Ongoing stress caused by higher interest rates, uncertainty around property values and questions about fundamentals in some property markets are beginning to show up in commercial mortgage delinquency rates. Given differences in their structures, each major capital source tracks delinquencies slightly differently – making them incomparable on an absolute level.  Even […]

This week, MBA released its April Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI), which revealed that affordability continued to erode in the first four months of 2023. PAPI, which measures how new purchase mortgage payments vary across time relative to income, increased 29.2% between December 2021 and December 2022 as 30-year fixed-rate mortgage […]

his week, MBA released the first quarter results of its Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report (QPR). The first quarter of 2023 marks the fourth consecutive quarter of net production losses for the independent mortgage bankers (IMBs) included in this report. After reaching a study-low in the fourth quarter of 2022, pre-tax net […]

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey, released this week, the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.56 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2023. The delinquency rate was down 40 basis […]

MBA Research conducts a series of benchmarking programs focused on mortgage profitability, revenue, cost, product mix, and productivity. Last month, we released results from our MBA Annual Performance Report and we regularly post data from our MBA Quarterly Performance Reports. These reports are representative of independent mortgage companies (IMBs) and a handful of […]

There’s a lot going on in the commercial real estate markets. Changes in property fundamentals, interest rates, property values, and more have led to a marked slowdown in transaction activity—with Q1 sales activity down 56 percent from a year earlier. MBA’s Q1 commercial mortgage delinquency survey showed a 110-basis point increase in […]

According to data from MBA’s Builder Applications Survey, applications taken by home builder affiliate mortgage lenders in March for the purchase of new homes increased 10% month-over-month and were up slightly from a year ago. Low for-sale inventory continues to constrain home sales, along with mortgage rates that remain above 6%. […]

MBA’s forecast calls for a gradual recovery in home purchase activity in the second half of 2023, driven by some catch-up buying from 2022 when mortgage rates surged and by younger age cohorts entering homeownership. However, this recovery will be dependent on affordability conditions improving – home price growth moderating, […]

According to MBA’s Annual Mortgage Bankers Performance Report released this week, volume for Independent Mortgage Banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks declined by 50% from an average of 16,590 loans per company in 2021 to 8,371 loans per company in 2022. This decline is close to MBA’s industry loan count estimates […]

MBA’s Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) data show that the steep rise in interest rates dominated moderating mortgage application loan amounts and in 2022 and early 2023, indicating eroded affordability for new homebuyers. Similarly, affordability for renters declined with U.S. Census Bureau data showing that median asking rents jumped by over 9.5% […]

There is, not inappropriately, a great deal of attention being paid to commercial real estate (CRE) right now. And with that attention comes a lot of different questions and answers—with many answers varying depending on how one defines things. One reference that we have been getting a lot of questions about […]

Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported a net loss of $2,812 on each loan they originated in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from a reported loss of $624 per loan in the third quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) newly […]

At MBA’s CREF Convention in San Diego last month, we released the results of our annual survey of upcoming commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities. The survey collects information directly from loan servicers on when the loans they service mature. As in past years, the numbers we released covered loans held by non-bank […]

This week, MBA held its 2023 Servicing Solutions Conference and Expo in Orlando, Florida.  The conference brought together servicing executives, operations managers, service providers, policymakers, and others. There were several themes discussed at the conference, which included housing affordability challenges (helped by the FHA’s welcomed announcement of a mortgage insurance premium reduction) and the […]

According to MBA’s latest Warehouse Lending Survey, warehouse lenders – as of the end of fourth-quarter 2022 – reported an average outstanding balance of $15.4 million per active client on their warehouse lines for first mortgages held for sale. This marks the fifth consecutive quarterly decline in per-client outstandings and the […]

This week the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), MBA’s think tank, released the first volume of A Collection of Essays on Climate Risk and the Housing Market that examines various aspects of how climate risk is impacting housing markets (as summarized in this week’s chart that replicates Exhibit 1 from the […]

At the end of next week, many of us will begin our annual migration to San Diego and to MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention & Expo (CREF23). There will be no lack of topics to discuss—from return to the office, to the return of retail, and interest in cap rates to interest rate caps. […]

In yesterday’s Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) release, MBA Research introduced a new measure—the Builders’ Purchase Applications Payment Index (BPAPI). While PAPI uses MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey (WAS) purchase data to calculate mortgage payments, BPAPI uses analogous MBA Builder Applications Survey (BAS) data to create an index that measures how new mortgage payments vary across […]

Welcome to our January issue of PRTNR Magazine!  Are you still looking to set some goals for 2023?  You’ll want to read up on setting SMART goals this year. Check out page 22 for some next-level tips and strategies.  We are also very excited to share about a new US REO Partners’ membership category,  the Associate […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week captures data on new residential construction market and the state of new single-family home sales. Data on home sales, housing starts, and purchase applications are shown as year-over-year percent changes, while the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is an index level. December […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week looks at the spread of mortgage rates relative to Treasury yields. This has been one of the more puzzling aspects of the current environment and a contributor to the rapid rise in mortgage rates over the past year. This spread has historically averaged around 180 […]

In an effort to increase transparency after the Great Recession, one of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication initiatives under Chairman Bernanke was to publish individual member’s assessments of the economy in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The SEP also includes each participant’s projection, based on information available […]

Housing costs are—appropriately—getting a lot of attention. Part of that attention stems from affordability challenges heightened by recent rapid increases in home prices, interest rates, and rents. Another part stems from the fact that shelter costs are such a significant driver of measures of inflation, and thus a key motivator […]

Earlier this week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced the conforming loan limits for mortgages eligible to be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2023. The 2023 loan limit for one-unit properties for most of the country will be $726,200, an increase of $79,000 from $647,200 in 2022. The change […]

Thanks to a very tight labor market and technological advances, hybrid work reigns two and a half years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with employees at many companies coming into the office a few days a week. The extent to which this trend will continue – and what […]

The biennial American Housing Survey (AHS), the most comprehensive national housing survey in the United States, was released earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The survey provides detailed data on housing migration (where at least one member of the respondent’s household moved during the […]

Last week, MBA released its September Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) data, which revealed that homebuyer affordability took a large hit in September, with the 75-basis-point jump in mortgage rates leading to the typical homebuyer’s monthly payment rising $102 to $1,941—further reducing the purchasing power of potential homebuyers. The median monthly payment […]

This week, MBA Research & Economics released its latest economic and mortgage market forecast at the MBA Annual Convention in Nashville. Based on our October forecast, total mortgage origination volume is expected to decline to $2.05 trillion in 2023 from an estimated $2.26 trillion in 2022. An economic recession, tighter financial conditions, […]

According to MBA’s Monthly Loan Monitoring Survey released this week, the share of loans in forbearance dropped slightly to 0.69 percent of servicers’ portfolio volume as of September 30, 2022, from 0.72 percent the prior month. About 345,000 homeowners are still in forbearance plans, after reaching a peak of almost 4.3 […]

Inside this Fall issue of PRTNR Magazine, you’ll find highlights from our US REO Partners sponsored events at The Five Star Conference & Expo from our well-attended Training Session and Client Meet & Greet to our Annual Client Dinner & Charity Auction.  In addition, you won’t want to miss the […]

This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation as measured by the CPI grew by 8.2 percent in September 2022, compared to a year ago. While this reading was lower than its recent peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022, these growth […]

At the end of September 2022, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau released 2021 American Housing Survey (AHS) summary table estimates in the AHS Table Creator and 2021 AHS National and Metro Public Use File microdata. The AHS, last updated with 2019 data, is […]

This week the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its Purchase-Only House Price Index (HPI) for July 2022. The HPI was down 0.6% from the previous month, although up 13.9% from July 2021. The HPI has increased by almost 120% since March 2012 (yellow line), and is up 39% since […]

In response to inflation continuing to run well above its target of 2%, the Federal Reserve this week again raised the federal funds target by 75 basis points. Now at 3%, the rate is above what most FOMC members consider to be the long-term level and should be effective in […]

The housing market continues to face challenges from economic uncertainty, high home-price growth, and volatile mortgage rates. MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey data show that overall mortgage application activity continues to trend lower, as refinances have quickly dried up due to rates rising throughout the year and hitting the 6-percent mark for the first […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week highlights one of the questions related to housing costs and inflation: If home price appreciation (HPA) and rent growth have been in double digits in the last few quarters—as highlighted by the (blue lined) Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) in the chart—why is the shelter […]

Homebuyer demand has faltered this summer, as lingering economic uncertainty, high inflation, and still-high mortgage rates caused many prospective buyers to delay their home search. Indeed, mortgage applications are at a 22-year low, held down by not only significantly reduced refinancing demand but also weak home purchase activity. MBA‘s latest economic […]

Independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported losses of 5 basis points ($82 per loan) in the second quarter of 2022, according to MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report released this week. Average production volume in the second quarter was $705 million per company, down from $808 million […]

This week, MBA Research released second quarter of 2022 results of its National Delinquency Survey (NDS). The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties was 3.64 percent – the lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 and down 47 basis points from first-quarter 2022 and 183 basis points from the […]

The national median mortgage payment was $1,893 in June, according to the latest Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) release. While it held steady over the second quarter of 2022 (from $1,889 and $1,897 in April and May), it was up 9.1% from the end of the first quarter, and $510 (36.9%) […]

According to MBA’s Monthly Loan Monitoring Survey, the share of loans in forbearance dropped slightly to 0.81 percent of servicers’ portfolio volume as of June 30, 2022, from 0.85 percent the prior month. Only about 404,000 homeowners are still in forbearance plans, after reaching a peak of almost 4.3 million homeowners in […]

A total of 4,195 companies reported lending activity under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) in 2021, according to MBA’s own analyses of the dataset. Company types are defined by primary regulator and balance sheet assets, with large depositories holding assets of $10 billion or more. Large depositories have always […]

Interested in investing, giving and insights on the current and forecasted market conditions? Then this issue of PRTNR Magazine is for YOU! You’ll also find information on our upcoming US REO Partners Annual Client Dinner and Charity Auction in September and write-ups from our member-only monthly series, Coffee with Clients.

MBA’s annual Servicing Operations Study and Forum includes a deep-dive analysis and discussion of servicing costs, productivity, portfolio activity, and operational metrics for in‐house servicers. This week’s MBA Chart of the Week shows 2021 fully-loaded servicing costs, which include three components: direct expenses; unreimbursed foreclosure, REO and other default costs; and corporate administration costs. […]

Based on the most recent MBA forecast, mortgage originations are expected to drop to $2.4 trillion (or 6.7 million loans) in 2022 from $4.0 trillion (or 11.3 million loans) in 2021. This rapid shift in industry volume, after two years of record-setting levels not seen since 2003, has forced mortgage companies […]

This week the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), MBA’s think tank, released a special report, Who Will Buy the Baby Boomers’ Homes When They Leave Them?, authored by Gary Engelhardt of Syracuse University. The report examines population aging, mortality, and the future of the housing market. In 2019, there were […]

The national median mortgage payment was $1,897 in May, a slight increase from $1,889 in April and $572 higher than in May 2021, according to this week’s Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) release. Payments have increased $513 (37.1%) in the first five months of the year, consistent with still-elevated loan sizes, […]

The Federal Reserve is racing to catch up to economic events, announcing a 75-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate and signaling more increases following this week’s FOMC meeting. The FOMC’s median projection for the federal funds rate now shows a year-end 2022 rate of around 3.4%, compared to the […]

Commercial and multifamily real estate – after years of strong and steady growth – is in a period of transition, driven by changes in the space, equity and debt markets. In terms of space markets, each property type is in a different place. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, vacancy […]

In March, MBA released its inaugural, monthly Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) – an affordability index that measures how new fixed-rate 30-year purchase mortgage payments vary across time relative to income. The third PAPI release on May 26 – based on April MBA Weekly Applications Survey (WAS) data – gives us a […]

MBA released this week its latest Quarterly Performance Report for the first quarter of 2022. The total sample of 366 independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks earned an average pre-tax production profit of 5 basis points (or $223) on each loan they originated – the lowest level since the fourth quarter […]

Housing markets are tight. Multifamily developers are responding. Developers are currently building 800,000 new homes in buildings with 5 or more units – the most since the mid-1970s – and will put-in-place $100 billion of multifamily housing construction this year, a new record. In recent months, MBA’s Chart of the Week has […]

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey was released this week, covering national and state delinquencies through the first quarter of 2022. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.11 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of […]

According to the inaugural 2021 Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) Study, conducted by McLagan and recommended by Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), participating mortgage firms – both residential and commercial/multifamily – had varied policies, practices and initiatives to further racial and gender equality within their organizations. This week’s MBA Chart of the Week shows […]

Last week, MBA released its 2021 Annual Performance Report. The total sample of 273 independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and subsidiaries of banks employed an average of 554 mortgage production employees over the course of 2021. This was the highest average production employee count since the start of the report in 2008. […]

The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, includes an Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) conducted every March. The ASEC provides details on geographic mobility and migration over the last year—including information on the types of moves and […]

The release of MBA’s Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Firms – Annual Origination Rankings annual report presents a comprehensive set of listings of commercial/multifamily mortgage originators, their volumes and the different roles they play. The report presents origination volumes in more than 140 categories, including by role, by investor group, by property type, […]

On March 24, MBA released its inaugural, monthly Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI) – an affordability index that measures how new fixed-rate 30-year purchase mortgage payments vary across time relative to income. Every month, MBA Research will use MBA Weekly Applications Survey (WAS) payment data, together with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ […]

Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached an annual rate of almost 8% in February. Over the past 12 months, inflation has increased steadily from less than 2% to 7.9%, compared to an average just under 2% in the five years prior. Supply chain disruptions and goods […]

House price appreciation (HPA) continued to rise rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Purchase Only House Price Index increased by 17.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020, and it grew by over 27% in Idaho, Utah, and Arizona. There have been various explanations […]

On Thursday, February 24, Russian troops invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked assault on a peaceful neighbor. Through ground, sea, and air attacks, the Russian military since then has killed countless Ukrainian citizens and kicked off a massive dislocation as more than a million Ukrainians seek refuge in neighboring countries while millions […]

This past week in Orlando, MBA held its annual Servicing Solutions Conference and Expo, attended by over 1,300 industry professionals. Among the major topics weighing on mortgage servicers were servicing technology, servicing transfers, post-forbearance workouts, customer complaints, fair servicing and regulatory compliance, and borrower communications, among others. In this week’s MBA Chart of […]

The average usage level of first-mortgage warehouse lines – the percentage of outstanding borrowings to warehouse facility limits – fell for the sixth consecutive quarter to 38% as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, according to MBA’s quarterly Warehouse Lending Survey. This latest result marks the lowest usage […]

Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey – covering national and state delinquencies through the fourth quarter of 2021 – was released this week. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.65 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of 2021. The […]

Despite the job market recovery that is still chugging along two years after the start of the pandemic, many employers still face challenges in re-hiring and filling open positions. The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week features Weekly Applications Survey data, re-indexed to January 2020, to highlight the most recent refinance and home purchase trends. With mortgage rates increasing steadily lately, refinance applications have fallen.  The 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.30 percent in 2020 and 3.14 percent in 2021, including dipping […]

According to MBA’s latest Monthly Loan Monitoring Survey, the share of loans in forbearance dropped to 1.41 percent of servicers’ portfolio volume as of December 31, 2021, from 1.67 percent the prior month. MBA’s estimate is that there are now 705,000 homeowners in forbearance plans, down from the peak of almost […]

On Friday, January 7, 2022, the U.S. Department of Treasury released their latest monthly update on the allocation of funds from the Emergency Rental Assistance (ERA) program. ERA1 was established as a response to the pandemic under the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021 which provided $25 billion to pay past, and in […]

The pandemic has had an unparalleled effect on labor markets. With insured unemployment continuing claims climbing to (an unadjusted) 1.87 million in yesterday’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, it appears that the omicron variant, as of the end of 2021, has, relative to earlier in the pandemic, only modestly impacted the […]

According to MBA’s Monthly Loan Monitoring Survey, the share of loans in forbearance dropped to 1.67 percent of servicers’ portfolio volume as of November 30, 2021, after climbing to a monthly peak of 8.53 percent as of May 31, 2020. As many borrowers have moved out of forbearance and into permanent […]

Inflation is running well above target, and the job market is booming. It was no surprise that the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement released on Wednesday announced an acceleration of their tapering of Treasury and MBS purchases, and signaled that the first rate hike will be coming sooner rather than later. Moreover, the median […]

This week the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), MBA’s think tank, released updated results that allow us to assess how renters and homeowners fared over the first year-and-a-half of the pandemic. The updated analysis of the Understanding America Study (UAS) panel survey data, conducted by Gary Engelhardt of Syracuse University, and […]

This week the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), MBA’s think tank, released a special report, The Distribution of Wealth in America Since 2016. The report, authored by ex-FHA Commissioner and HUD and OMB chief economist Dr. John Weicher, currently at the Hudson Institute, uses the two latest waves of the Federal […]

The US housing stock is full. Each quarter the U.S. Census Bureau reports vacancy rates for homeownership and rental properties.  Homeownership units are defined as those that are owner-occupied or are year-round units either sold and awaiting occupancy or currently for sale.  Rental units are renter-occupied, or year-round units either […]

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.88 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2021. The delinquency rate was down 59 basis points from the previous quarter, and was 277 points lower than […]

The Employment Situation Report for October brought strong results for the overall job market: 531,000 jobs were added over the month across most sectors of the economy and the unemployment rate decreased further to 4.6%. Notably for the housing market, there was also a boost to construction employment. Out of […]

On Tuesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its August 2021 House Price Index. The purchase-only index, that tracks changes in transaction prices for conforming, conventional single-family purchase mortgages, showed that nominal seasonally adjusted house prices had appreciated by 18.5% from August 2020 to August 2021. However, the latest report […]

Sometimes research is like putting a puzzle together – trying to fit one piece of information with another to create a full picture of what’s happening. This week, we are adding a new, final piece to the puzzle of how much commercial real estate lending happens each year. Each spring […]

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August continues to show that many employers are running into difficulty re-hiring and filling open positions. While retreating from (a series high of) over 11 million in July 2021, openings remained over 10.4 million in […]

This morning’s Employment Situation Summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that job growth remained lackluster in September following similarly disappointing gains in August. Overall, the economy added 194,000 jobs in September, the weakest month thus far in 2021, but there were upward revisions to the previous two months’ totals. […]

Last week the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), MBA’s think tank, released a special report, The Impact of Climate Change on Housing and Housing Finance. The report, authored by Sean Becketti, reviews what we know so far about climate change; the likely impacts to housing and housing finance; strategies that can mitigate […]

Under the Ability-to-Repay/Qualified Mortgage (ATR/QM) rule, loans that meet the rule’s requirements for QMs obtain certain protections from liability. In December 2020, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) revised the rule implementing the ATR (with an additional delay announced in April 2021) so that a first-lien loan meets the General […]

Commercial and multifamily property prices are the product of two things: a) the net operating income (NOI) a property produces and/or is expected to produce and b) the multiple of that income (the capitalization or “cap” rate) investors are willing to pay in order to own that income stream. Thus, Property […]

Home price appreciation continued to accelerate in the second quarter of 2021, driven by robust housing demand, which continues to outpace the supply of homes for sale. Some prospective home buyers have taken out larger loans, while others, such as first-time homebuyers or those looking for less expensive homes, have […]

Independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported a net gain of 73 basis points in the second quarter of 2021, down from a reported gain of 124 basis points in the first quarter of 2021, according to this week’s release of MBA’s latest Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report. The purchase […]

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one‐to‐four‐unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.47 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2021. The delinquency rate was down 91 basis points from this year’s first quarter, and was 275 points lower […]

Last week the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), MBA’s think tank, released updated second-quarter 2021 results that allow us to assess how renters, mortgagors and student loan borrowers fared over the first 15 months of the pandemic. The updated analysis of the Understanding America Study (UAS) panel survey data, […]

According to MBA’s Weekly Forbearance and Call Volume Survey, the share of loans in forbearance dropped to 3.47 percent of servicers’ portfolio volume as of July 25, 2021, from a peak of 8.55 percent as of June 7, 2020. While the number of borrowers exiting forbearance has fluctuated from one month […]

A total of 4,309 companies reported lending activity under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) in 2020, according to MBA’s own analyses of the dataset. Company types are defined by regulator and assets, as follows: Large depositories are regulated by the OCC, FRS, FDIC, or CFPB and hold more than […]

In 2020, net production profit in the retail production channel (which excludes third party and consumer direct originations) averaged $5,351 per loan based on a cross-section of 91 lenders, including mid-size and large banks and independent mortgage companies. To a large extent, this net profit was driven by production revenues, […]

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell testified before Congress this week and received several questions regarding recent inflation trends, with overall CPI inflation increasing 5.4 percent in June 2021 compared to a year ago. This followed readings of 4.2 percent in April and 5.0 percent in May. The headline inflation number […]

When looking at commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates, we tend to exclude loans that have been delinquent for less than 30 days, as many may be experiencing a temporary “hiccup” that will be quickly remedied before the next payment is due. But examining these rates can provide key insights […]

Even with the recent burst in economic activity and hiring, as almost two-thirds of the U.S. adults have received at least one COVID vaccination, the unemployment rate and overall payroll levels have not returned to pre-pandemic levels of job market health. While job openings have soared as businesses reopen, many […]

The release last Friday of the Biden Administration’s proposed Fiscal Year 2022 Budget put down in black and white – and dollars and cents – many suggestions that have been made in more general terms in the Administration’s American Jobs and Family Plans, during the most recent presidential campaigns and […]

MBA Research recently wrapped up its annual Servicing Operations Study, a deep dive analysis of servicing costs, productivity, portfolio activity and operational metrics for in-house servicers. In this week’s chart, we show 2020 direct servicing costs allocated by functional area. After four consecutive years of decline, total direct servicing costs reached […]

This week’s chart shows the historical retail Loan Officer (LO) turnover rates (%) for depository banks and independent mortgage companies, based on data collected through the MBA and STRATMOR Peer Group Roundtable Program, now in its 23rd year of production. From 2002 to 2020, the LO turnover rate averaged 38%, […]

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021, U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich issued an order vacating the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) national eviction moratorium, but also put a temporary pause on the order, meaning that (as of this writing) the CDC moratorium, which is scheduled to expire […]

This week the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), MBA’s think tank, released updated first-quarter 2021 results that allow us to assess how renters, mortgagors and student loan borrowers fared over the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The updated analysis of the Understanding America Study (UAS) panel survey data, conducted […]

The pace of economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2021, picked up to a 6.4 percent annualized rate – the biggest first-quarter increase since 1984. We expect that pace to accelerate further over the next 6 months, as households unleash the pent-up […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week examines the year-over-year growth in purchase loan applications by loan size since 2018. The high and increasing growth trends in applications for larger loans (over $625,000) that became pronounced in 2019 continued in the second half of 2020 (following the V-shaped COVID dip). While the […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week focuses on newly built homes, as measured by new home sales and single-family housing starts. As indicated in our monthly Builder Applications Survey (BAS) release, MBA’s estimate of new home sales declined by more than 4 percent in March 2021 to a seasonally adjusted annual […]

This week’s chart summarizes the recent strength of the job market. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), job growth accelerated sharply in March, as the economy gained 916,000 jobs over the month, the largest monthly gain since August 2020. The gains were across several sectors, including both goods-producing […]

MBA released its latest Quarterly Performance Report for the fourth quarter of 2020 earlier this week. The total sample of 366 independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks earned an average pre-tax production profit of 137 basis points (or $3,738) on each loan they originated, declining from a record-high 203 basis points […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week captures the share of mortgage applications to purchase or refinance a second home or investment property. In February 2021, 10.1 percent of all applications in the retail and consumer direct channels were for a non-primary residence. This was an increase from 9.5 percent the previous […]

The rate of US home-price appreciation continues to be driven higher by a combination of strong demand for housing and record-low housing inventory for sale. The FHFA’s most recent release showed that the fourth quarter of 2020 saw annual home-price growth of 10.9 percent – the strongest annual change on […]

In recent weeks, markets are increasingly predicting that inflation and real economic growth will pick up rapidly worldwide as the COVID-19 vaccine continues to be rolled out, and that the central banks are being too pessimistic in their views on monetary policy accommodation and may have to reverse course abruptly. […]

MBA yesterday released its National Delinquency Survey results for the fourth quarter of 2020. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties at the end of the quarter decreased from a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.65 percent of all loans outstanding in the third quarter to 6.73 percent in the fourth […]

This week’s MBA Chart of the Week chart provides a preview of newly updated pandemic-related household financial insights that MBA’s Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) will release this coming Monday, February 8, 2021. RIHA analysis of the Understanding America Study (UAS) data, conducted by Gary Engelhardt of Syracuse University […]

Homeowners’ equity in housing was at a record high of $20.4 trillion in the third quarter of 2020. The steady upward trend since 2012 was spurred by accelerating home-price growth and low mortgage rates, which have helped many households build equity in their homes. The third quarter’s year-over-year increase in […]

Lenders tightened mortgage credit in the first half of 2020, as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused the economy to suffer its sharpest single-quarter contraction in history. Mortgage credit availability, as measured by our series of indexes, has recovered slightly in recent months. However, availability is still close to its […]

The American Housing Survey (AHS) is a national longitudinal survey that provides information on the size, quality, composition, and cost of housing. It is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and conducted every odd-numbered year by the U.S Census Bureau. Data for 2019 were released […]

The COVID-19 pandemic continued to impact the labor market to close 2020. Today’s release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that faster layoffs led to a loss of 140,000 jobs in December and kept the headline unemployment rate (U-3) at 6.7 percent. Total employment remains 6.5 percent below […]

One way to gauge potential commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance volume is by looking at the spreads investors are willing to pay for bonds. Based on current new-issue spreads, 2021 could line-up to be a strong year. The spreads investors demand to invest in CMBS are a measure of capital supply. […]

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Over the past three months, the pace of job gains has slowed from the rapid recovery seen over the summer. Similarly, the unemployment rate continues to decline, but at a more gradual pace. While the improvement has been positive, neither measure is back […]

MBA released its latest Quarterly Performance Report for the third quarter of 2020 earlier this week.  Independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported study-high average pre-tax production profits of 203 basis points ($5,535 on each loan originated) in the third quarter, up from 167 basis points ($4,548 per loan) in the […]

MBA released its National Delinquency Survey results for the third quarter of 2020 last week. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties at the end of the quarter decreased 57 basis points to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.65 percent of all loans outstanding. The decrease in the mortgage delinquency rate […]